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1994-05-02
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<text>
<title>
Middle East: World Trade Outlook
</title>
<article>
<hdr>
World Trade Outlook 1992: Near East
Near East and South Asia Send Signals for Great Markets Now
</hdr>
<body>
<p>By Cherie Loustaunau
</p>
<p>U.S. exports to the Near East and North Africa jumped 22
percent in 1991 to $18.2 billion--over 4 percent of U.S.
exports to the world. A tremendous growth in sales to our
largest markets in the region--Kuwait (over 300 percent),
Saudi Arabia (63 percent), the United Arab Emirates (45
percent), and to a lesser extent Egypt (21 percent), and Israel
(20 percent)--more than offset the complete loss of the Iraqi
market and a decline in exports to several of the smaller
countries.
</p>
<p> Though the crisis in the Persian Gulf and its aftermath led
to a decline in the economies of several countries in the
region, the downfall was less serious than expected in some
countries, and many are recovering more quickly than predicted.
In 1992, renewed growth should lead to a rise in U.S. exports
to these countries, while export growth stabilizes or declines
slightly in the Gulf region.
</p>
<p> Over the longer term, the outlook for stronger U.S.
commercial ties throughout the Near East and North Africa is
very favorable. In the Gulf, the goodwill generated by
Operations Desert Shield and Desert Storm has led to a renewal
of the economic dialogue between the United States and the
countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC--Saudi Arabia,
Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Oman, and Qatar).
This dialogue is expected to open greater opportunities to
American companies for sales and investment, and should help to
resolve some of the difficulties American and GCC companies have
had in doing business with each other in the past.
</p>
<p> In addition, economic reforms in countries across the region
have liberalized trade and led to increased private sector
participation in the economies. This process is creating more
open markets for those American suppliers who are energetic in
their pursuit of these growing opportunities. U.S. firms that
offer the quality products for which American manufacturers are
known in the region, together with competitive prices and good
service, will meet with much success.
</p>
<p>Algeria
</p>
<p> U.S. exports to Algeria decreased over $200 million in 1991
to $727 million. The drop reflects Algeria's increasingly
troublesome economic situation caused in part by lower oil
prices and a debt service burden which has reached about 70
percent. A recently concluded $1.5 billion syndicated
refinancing facility with a French-led group of banks will
reduce the country's debt burden. The Algerian government is
also engaged in an economic reform program, which emphasizes
strengthening the private sector and attracting more foreign
investment. A new hydrocarbon investment law opens the oil and
gas sector to foreign ownership with Algerian firms, and the
involvement of large U.S. companies in new oil and gas projects
offers opportunities for American firms to supply related goods
and services.
</p>
<p>U.S. exports 1991--$727 million U.S. imports 1991--$2.1
billion
</p>
<p> Algeria is in a period of political change, which has been
accompanied by a number of violent incidents. Americans are
advised to defer all non-essential travel to the country. If
travel is necessary, avoid all public gatherings and
demonstrations while in the country and register with the
American Embassy in Algiers or the American Consulate in Oran.
</p>
<p>Iran
</p>
<p> The eager response of American firms to a more open Iranian
market sent U.S. exports surging by more than 300 percent in
1991 to $527 million. U.S. sales this year could top $1 billion
if President Rafsanjani continues to stress economic reforms
and growth.
</p>
<p>U.S. exports 1991--$527 million U.S. imports 1991--$231
million
</p>
<p> The United States maintains foreign policy controls on sales
to Iran of items that threaten our national security.
Nevertheless, Iran is potentially a vast market for American
companies. It has a rapidly rising population of over 60
million, and is one of the world's largest producers of oil and
gas. A decade of war and neglect have left the country with a
deteriorating infrastructure and a declining industrial base in
great need of rebuilding. The current $320 billion, five-year
development plan funds reconstruction of transportation,
telecommunications, and manufacturing facilities and growth in
the hydrocarbon, mining, power, water, and agricultural sectors.
</p>
<p>Lebanon
</p>
<p> U.S. exports to Lebanon rose 68 percent in 1991 to $165
million, and they could increase another 50 percent in the
coming year as Lebanon begins a massive reconstruction program.
</p>
<p>U.S. exports 1991--$165 million U.S. imports 1991--$28
million
</p>
<p> American citizens are advised to avoid all travel to Lebanon,
and U.S. passports are not valid for travel to, in, or through
the country. However, trade is relatively unrestricted.
Extraordinary controls on trade are limited to the Department of
Transportation order, which prohibits the purchase or sale in
the United States of air service for Lebanon. This affects
business travel and air shipments.
</p>
<p>Morocco
</p>
<p> Lower sales of aircraft and military equipment brought U.S.
exports to Morocco down by 19 percent to $403 million in 1991.
Improving conditions in the Moroccan economy, further
liberalization of foreign trade regulations, and forward
movement in several development projects should help American
sales to grow to over $450 million this year.
</p>
<p>U.S. exports 1991--$403 million U.S. imports 1991--$151
million
</p>
<p> Morocco's current development plan sets a priority on growth
in agricultural production and development of the country's vast
fishing resources. These projects provide a ready market for
U.S. farm and irrigation equipment and equipment for new fishing
ports and cold storage facilities. In addition, Moroccan
companies are increasingly approaching U.S. companies to
substitute new sources of supply for their traditional European
partners. Excellent prospects for American exports include hotel
and restaurant facilities, telecommunications equipment, textile
machinery, food packaging and processing equipment, industrial
chemicals, and medical equipment.
</p>
<p>Tunisia
</p>
<p> The Tunisian government's push to raise the country's
economic growth to 6.5 percent in the next year should help
U.S. suppliers reverse the 4 percent decline in sales to Tunisia
last year. Continued economic liberalization, higher exports of
manufactured goods and services, and at least $110 million in
new foreign investment are expected to fuel the growth.
American companies should find the greatest sales and
investment opportunities in agribusiness, food processing and
services, such as insurance, trade and finance, and software
sales and development. The tourism and telecommunications
sectors also offer good prospects.
</p>
<p>U.S. exports 1991--$171 million U.S. imports 1991--$33
million
</p>
<p> Tunisia's eighth economic development plan (1992-96) projects
the full liberalization of imports, prices, and financial
instruments, including making the Tunisian dinar convertible by
the end of the plan period. Tunisia's very successful
privatization program also continues. Since the program started
in 1987, at least 32 public sector enterprises have been
privatized.
</p>
<p>Source: International Trade Administration, Business America Magazine
</p>
</body>
</article>
</text>